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Investors's Economic Resources

DAL-SKYW deal first effect of New Paradigm?
Commentary from Investor’s Economic Resources
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The sale of Delta’s ASA subsidiary to Skywest for $425 million gives DAL some breathing room and may set the stage for Delta to broach the subject of much needed further wage concessions from its employees.

More interesting, is that the sale was probably the first tangible effect of the new paradigm in labor relations that could take place if Northwest Airlines is able to replace it unionized mechanics with much lower paid employees. NWAC will be able to impose wage cuts of 26% and layoffs on Friday when the federally imposed cooling-off period expires. This will be the first time a major airline has essentially de-unionized a major segment of its workforce. It will be the beginning of a new paradigm for labor relations in the airline industry and possibly have wider repercussions.

It is doubtful that the highly union-phobic SKYW would have bought ASA if it did not think it could ultimately remove the unions from the ASA property. SKYW probably intends to use the same tactics that NWAC is using to remove the mechanics union (AMFA) with some additional wrinkles.

SKYW could use personnel from its non-union operations to replace the ASA workforce if necessary. In this way SKYW will be able to “Walmartize” its operations. Walmart is union-proof because it can take the negotiating stance that it will never agree to a contract that ever pays unionized workers as much a non-union workers. With 5,000+ stores Walmart can afford to keep any one unit shut indefinitely, rather than sign a contract paying union members as much as non-union members (and certainly never more than non-union members). Once Walmart employees understand this stance, they understandably will never vote to certify a union.

SKYW will probably adopt the same stance with the ASA unions and use the NWAC tactic of waiting until the cooling-off period expires and then imposing cuts with a reserve army of replacement workers waiting in the wings. This new paradigm will set the tone in airline labor relations for years to come. If NWAC is able to impose wage cuts without resorting to bankruptcy it might lead to a repricing of all securities in the airline industry. The valuation gap between legacy airlines and low-cost carriers could narrow appreciably.

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